HOW I MAKE MONEY FROM CASINOS USING PROBABILITY AND VARIANCE.

We will teach you how to make money by completing statistically profitable special offers that are provided by online casinos. They are meant to entice punters into spending more money but that doesn’t work on someone that takes advantage of casinos. I solely do these offers and never do a single spin on a slot outside of them. Through this I am almost £20,000 in profit since March 2018.

The multitude of different offers we do can be broken down into two categories which are; “Low Risk” and “High Risk”.

“Low Risk” casino offers generally consist of offers from larger bookmakers and casino sites which tend to require less capital. It’s also very unlikely that, on completion of an offer like this, you would lose your entire deposit. For example, “Wager £20 get 10 free spins” is a “Low Risk” offer as it is highly unlikely, in a worse case scenario, that you would lose more than 60% of the £20.

High Risk” offers, for the most part, come from purely casino sites although occasionally you may find them on actual bookmakers. For these offers the potential to lose your entire deposit is a high one. For example, “Deposit £50 and get a £50 bonus” would be considered “High Risk” assuming that you must wager through both the bonus and the deposit to extract any winnings. “High Risk” requires a more lengthy explanation for it to make sense so check out our guide here: Click Here!

The method in which we extract profit from casinos using a “Low Risk” strategy is relatively simple using mathematics so pay attention.

“Bet £10 get 10 free spins” Example Bookmaker: William Hill

This is a fairly common example of an offer you will see on a bookie/casino site. Offers like this are generally what we would call “Positive expected value” or “Positive EV” for short. What this means is if you do a significant amount of offers like these, over time you would be expected to come out with a profit.

Lets presume this particular bookie or casino wants us to use the slot “Starburst” for this offer, this happens to be the one of the most popular slots in the world right now. Starburst has a “Return to player percentage” of 96.1%. We can say “RTP” for short.

What this means is if you were to spend £10 on starburst statistically the slot would pay out £9.61 back. This is another way of saying that if you use your own money on this slot you will lose it in the long run.

To clarify, “RTP” percentages are tested independently by trusted sources. They use the exact same copy of the slot and run simulations billions of times in order to get that number so it can be trusted. A good website example for this is: https://slotcatalog.com

You could work this out like this: 10 x 0.961 = 9.61 or £9.61

Now then, £10 – £9.61 is a monetary loss of -£0.39p. This is the first part of the offer where you would be expected to lose. This is what you are required to do in order to unlock the subsequent free spins. Lets assume these free spins are £0.20p per spin. That means the entire 10 spins are worth £2. This is a little inaccurate as in reality they’re worth slightly less due to the slots “Return to player percentage”. Therefore, with a “RTP” of 96.1% the free spins are actually worth £1.92p. It’s important to make that distinction with larger offers and when the offers get a little more complicated.

You would work this out like this: 2 x 0.961 = 1.92 or £1.92

As you’ve probably realized by now, mathematically this offer would give you a profit assuming the slot would pay out exactly as it does on average. It’s also important to remember that in this offer the winnings from your free spins go straight to your cash balance. That isn’t always the case as I will explain later on.

£1.92 – £0.39 = £1.53 PROFIT

Now of course this isn’t what always happens. This is called “variance”. I’ve done thousands of these offers and others over my casino career and it never ceases to amaze me how variant it can be. I’ve had a 0.40p spin pay out £250 and a £200 spin pay out nothing. Eventually though it becomes extremely improbable so the variance isn’t infinite. For example, the chances of me or you winning a jackpot is incredibly low but its also insanely rare for somebody to do 200 spins and every spin to pay out nothing at all. In fact, the maximum number of spins I’ve had that paid out nothing at all is 46 in a row.

I have explained my current mindset when it comes to variance here. I recommend that you check it out as it might give you a few tips for avoiding “bad days”. For me a bad day isn’t when I lose money, its not that uncommon to lose money in a day. A bad day is when I get emotionally invested in my losses and get angry/upset. You might see the term “Risk Averse” across different forums. This means someone who is bad at dealing with short term losses.

If you require some motivation to test this out for yourself then i recommend checking out my September Profit Blog where you can see for yourself the effects.